我们解决了条件平均嵌入（CME）的内核脊回归估算的一致性，这是给定$ y $ x $的条件分布的嵌入到目标重现内核hilbert space $ hilbert space $ hilbert Space $ \ Mathcal {H} _y $ $ $ $ 。 CME允许我们对目标RKHS功能的有条件期望，并已在非参数因果和贝叶斯推论中使用。我们解决了错误指定的设置，其中目标CME位于Hilbert-Schmidt操作员的空间中，该操作员从$ \ Mathcal {H} _X _x $和$ L_2 $和$ \ MATHCAL {H} _Y $ $之间的输入插值空间起作用。该操作员的空间被证明是新定义的矢量值插值空间的同构。使用这种同构，我们在未指定的设置下为经验CME估计量提供了一种新颖的自适应统计学习率。我们的分析表明，我们的费率与最佳$ o（\ log n / n）$速率匹配，而无需假设$ \ Mathcal {h} _y $是有限维度。我们进一步建立了学习率的下限，这表明所获得的上限是最佳的。

在概率空间或分销回归方面的学习功能的问题正在对机器学习社区产生重大兴趣。此问题背后的一个关键挑战是确定捕获基础功能映射的所有相关属性的合适表示形式。内核平均嵌入式提供了一种原则性的分布回归方法，该方法在概率水平上提高了内核诱导的输入域的相似性。该策略有效地解决了问题的两阶段抽样性质，使人们能够得出具有强大统计保证的估计器，例如普遍的一致性和过度的风险界限。但是，内核平均值嵌入在最大平均差异（MMD）上隐含地铰接，这是概率的度量，可能无法捕获分布之间的关键几何关系。相反，最佳运输（OT）指标可能更具吸引力。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个基于OT的分布回归估计器。我们建立在切成薄片的Wasserstein距离上，以获得基于OT的表示。我们基于这种表示，我们研究了内核脊回归估计量的理论特性，我们证明了普遍的一致性和过多的风险界限。初步实验通过显示提出方法的有效性并将其与基于MMD的估计器进行比较，以补充我们的理论发现。

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have gained much attention in various fields of engineering thanks to their capability of incorporating physical laws into the models. PINNs integrate the physical constraints by minimizing the partial differential equations (PDEs) residuals on a set of collocation points. The distribution of these collocation points appears to have a huge impact on the performance of PINNs and the assessment of the sampling methods for these points is still an active topic. In this paper, we propose a Fixed-Budget Online Adaptive Mesh Learning (FBOAML) method, which decomposes the domain into sub-domains, for training collocation points based on local maxima and local minima of the PDEs residuals. The stopping criterion is based on a data set of reference, which leads to an adaptive number of iterations for each specific problem. The effectiveness of FBOAML is demonstrated in the context of non-parameterized and parameterized problems. The impact of the hyper-parameters in FBOAML is investigated in this work. The comparison with other adaptive sampling methods is also illustrated. The numerical results demonstrate important gains in terms of accuracy of PINNs with FBOAML over the classical PINNs with non-adaptive collocation points. We also apply FBOAML in a complex industrial application involving coupling between mechanical and thermal fields. We show that FBOAML is able to identify the high-gradient location and even give better prediction for some physical fields than the classical PINNs with collocation points taken on a pre-adapted finite element mesh.

We provide a unifying approximate dynamic programming framework that applies to a broad variety of problems involving sequential estimation. We consider first the construction of surrogate cost functions for the purposes of optimization, and we focus on the special case of Bayesian optimization, using the rollout algorithm and some of its variations. We then discuss the more general case of sequential estimation of a random vector using optimal measurement selection, and its application to problems of stochastic and adaptive control. We finally consider related search and sequential decoding problems, and a rollout algorithm for the approximate solution of the Wordle and Mastermind puzzles, recently developed in the paper [BBB22].

In 2021 300 mm of rain, nearly half the average annual rainfall, fell near Catania (Sicily island, Italy). Such events took place in just a few hours, with dramatic consequences on the environmental, social, economic, and health systems of the region. This is the reason why, detecting extreme rainfall events is a crucial prerequisite for planning actions able to reverse possibly intensified dramatic future scenarios. In this paper, the Affinity Propagation algorithm, a clustering algorithm grounded on machine learning, was applied, to the best of our knowledge, for the first time, to identify excess rain events in Sicily. This was possible by using a high-frequency, large dataset we collected, ranging from 2009 to 2021 which we named RSE (the Rainfall Sicily Extreme dataset). Weather indicators were then been employed to validate the results, thus confirming the presence of recent anomalous rainfall events in eastern Sicily. We believe that easy-to-use and multi-modal data science techniques, such as the one proposed in this study, could give rise to significant improvements in policy-making for successfully contrasting climate changes.

Reduced order modeling methods are often used as a mean to reduce simulation costs in industrial applications. Despite their computational advantages, reduced order models (ROMs) often fail to accurately reproduce complex dynamics encountered in real life applications. To address this challenge, we leverage NeuralODEs to propose a novel ROM correction approach based on a time-continuous memory formulation. Finally, experimental results show that our proposed method provides a high level of accuracy while retaining the low computational costs inherent to reduced models.

Because of the considerable heterogeneity and complexity of the technological landscape, building accurate models to forecast is a challenging endeavor. Due to their high prevalence in many complex systems, S-curves are a popular forecasting approach in previous work. However, their forecasting performance has not been directly compared to other technology forecasting approaches. Additionally, recent developments in time series forecasting that claim to improve forecasting accuracy are yet to be applied to technological development data. This work addresses both research gaps by comparing the forecasting performance of S-curves to a baseline and by developing an autencoder approach that employs recent advances in machine learning and time series forecasting. S-curves forecasts largely exhibit a mean average percentage error (MAPE) comparable to a simple ARIMA baseline. However, for a minority of emerging technologies, the MAPE increases by two magnitudes. Our autoencoder approach improves the MAPE by 13.5% on average over the second-best result. It forecasts established technologies with the same accuracy as the other approaches. However, it is especially strong at forecasting emerging technologies with a mean MAPE 18% lower than the next best result. Our results imply that a simple ARIMA model is preferable over the S-curve for technology forecasting. Practitioners looking for more accurate forecasts should opt for the presented autoencoder approach.

We derive a learning framework to generate routing/pickup policies for a fleet of vehicles tasked with servicing stochastically appearing requests on a city map. We focus on policies that 1) give rise to coordination amongst the vehicles, thereby reducing wait times for servicing requests, 2) are non-myopic, considering a-priori unknown potential future requests, and 3) can adapt to changes in the underlying demand distribution. Specifically, we are interested in adapting to fluctuations of actual demand conditions in urban environments, such as on-peak vs. off-peak hours. We achieve this through a combination of (i) online play, a lookahead optimization method that improves the performance of rollout methods via an approximate policy iteration step, and (ii) an offline approximation scheme that allows for adapting to changes in the underlying demand model. In particular, we achieve adaptivity of our learned policy to different demand distributions by quantifying a region of validity using the q-valid radius of a Wasserstein Ambiguity Set. We propose a mechanism for switching the originally trained offline approximation when the current demand is outside the original validity region. In this case, we propose to use an offline architecture, trained on a historical demand model that is closer to the current demand in terms of Wasserstein distance. We learn routing and pickup policies over real taxicab requests in downtown San Francisco with high variability between on-peak and off-peak hours, demonstrating the ability of our method to adapt to real fluctuation in demand distributions. Our numerical results demonstrate that our method outperforms rollout-based reinforcement learning, as well as several benchmarks based on classical methods from the field of operations research.

In this paper we address the solution of the popular Wordle puzzle, using new reinforcement learning methods, which apply more generally to adaptive control of dynamic systems and to classes of Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) problems. These methods are based on approximation in value space and the rollout approach, admit a straightforward implementation, and provide improved performance over various heuristic approaches. For the Wordle puzzle, they yield on-line solution strategies that are very close to optimal at relatively modest computational cost. Our methods are viable for more complex versions of Wordle and related search problems, for which an optimal strategy would be impossible to compute. They are also applicable to a wide range of adaptive sequential decision problems that involve an unknown or frequently changing environment whose parameters are estimated on-line.

预测拍摄图片的国家有许多潜在的应用，例如对虚假索赔，冒名顶替者的识别，预防虚假信息运动，对假新闻的识别等等。先前的作品主要集中在拍摄图片的地理坐标的估计上。然而，从语义和法医学的角度来看，认识到已经拍摄图像的国家可能更重要，而不是确定其空间坐标。到目前为止，只有少数作品已经解决了这项任务，主要是依靠包含特征地标的图像，例如标志性的纪念碑。在上面的框架中，本文提供了两个主要贡献。首先，我们介绍了一个新的数据集，即Vippgeo数据集，其中包含近400万张图像，可用于训练DL模型进行国家分类。该数据集仅包含这种图像与国家识别的相关性，并且它是通过注意删除非显着图像（例如描绘面孔的图像或特定的非相关物体，例如飞机或船舶）来构建的。其次，我们使用数据集来训练深度学习架构，以将国家识别问题视为分类问题。我们执行的实验表明，我们的网络提供了比当前最新状态更好的结果。特别是，我们发现，要求网络直接识别该国提供比首先估算地理配位的更好的结果，然后使用它们将其追溯到拍摄图片的国家。